Wise words always fall on listening ears. "There is no Europe without industry, there is no security without financial resilience, and there is no security without energy independence." This accurate reflection comes from Enrico Letta, former president of the Republic of Italy. If we had to give it a title, it would be something like: "Move fast, Europe!" And the Old Continent has already begun to do so thanks to green molecules, which are essential for that speed. There are two categories of these compounds: those based on biomass and those based on hydrogen (synthetic fuels).
The former—such as biomethane and renewable diesel—incorporate circular raw materials and come from organic waste or waste from agriculture and livestock. Green molecules based on hydrogen or synthetic fuels are compounds of a non-biological origin that use green hydrogen as a foundation through renewable energies. Basic chemistry.
One of the great advantages of these small particles is that they can decarbonize difficult sectors such as heavy-duty transportation, mining industries, aviation and chemical components. They occupy the first paragraphs of the chapter in the new book. "While electrification is the main path to decarbonize, green molecules have emerged as the second lever and the main asset to act on those more difficult sectors. And they have the potential to reduce emissions in Europe by 22% by 2050," according to the study "Why Does Europe Need Green Molecules?", prepared by Moeve in partnership with the consulting firm PWC. One of the answers comes from Kitti Nyitrai, deputy director and head of the Decarbonisation and Sustainability of Energy Sources Unit, Directorate-General for Energy of the European Commission. "Electrification will be a fundamental path for decarbonization, but it will not take us all the way. We also need molecules and we have to analyze what their role will be in the future."
As we have seen, these compounds are fuels with a molecular composition similar to gasoline or traditional diesel, but instead of petroleum as the source, they are produced with biological waste, water, wind, and sun. This allows for the creation of a new European industry that will provide thousands of jobs. From now until 2040, it is estimated that 181,000 people will be directly and indirectly employed by this industry in Spain. This prediction comes from a report by the human resources consulting firm Manpower. Decarbonizing using green molecules and hydrogen is not only important because of its effect on the climate crisis, but because these two types of energy could come to represent one third of European energy consumption by 2050. "This is very relevant, it goes beyond decarbonizing the energy system, it involves the security of the energy supply in Europe. Because that third would be produced here," confirms Maarten Wetselaar, Moeve CEO.
This geopolitical reflection is echoed by Rosita Zilli, Policy Director at the European Energy Research Alliance (EERA). "In Europe, we sometimes tend to focus too much on specific technologies in isolation. From our point of view, we invite people to look beyond and adopt a global perspective of the energy system. In other words, to think about system integration," she advises.
Green molecules could replace up to 50% of the demand for fossil fuels, thus making up approximately one third of the European Union's energy mix and marking a crucial step towards climate neutrality. We are looking ahead to 2050. But the legal cards have to be on the table. "The market needs clear rules of the game that encourage carbon dioxide recycling, thereby making the most sustainable option also the most competitive option for companies," summarizes Luis Soler, associate professor and hydrogen expert at the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC). Another expert in the world of academia, Teresa Leo, Professor of Thermodynamics and Thermal Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM), concurs, commenting that the "use of hydrogen and other green molecules is a certainty in the maritime industry." She adds: "There are small vessels that already sail with these energies and their use can cut up to 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions."
Suddenly, the ground and air are full of what were once promises and today are realities. The plane takes off. The same sound of the engines spinning, identical thrust, "turn off your mobile devices," sounds over the loudspeaker. The big difference is that the fuel incorporates green molecules. Aviation has always been a very difficult sector to decarbonize. "It is precisely in this molecule that we have found the answer," notes Mikel Ortiz, sustainability director of the travel chain World2Meet. "The pilot flies the same way and already in the first year we have cut 3,400 tons of CO2, which is equal to the amount that 170,000 trees absorb in a year." It also helps if the regulatory winds are favorable. "The ReFuelEU Aviation regulation already sets long-term targets for sustainable aviation fuels. And FuelEU Maritime introduces incentives with a more technologically neutral approach for maritime transport," explains Kitti Nyitrai.
You have to carefully count the rings of the birch trees on the riverbank. The environmental impact. In addition to wood, pulp is obtained for cardboard, hygiene products, and paper. "This material's fiber is 45% more efficient in CO2 emissions than plastic and we can use it to create textile products, biofuels, and other substitutes. In fact, it is possible to replace chemical materials derived from petroleum with renewable ones made from wood in up to 15 industries, especially the packaging, fashion, and automotive industries," says Manuel Fernández Losa, co-manager of the Pictet Clean Energy Transition fund.
As we have seen, these green molecules are our great hope for decarbonizing sectors where electrification is difficult. It is complex, but costs are decreasing. Analyses estimate that the "green premium" associated with this technology decreases along the value chain. For example, the additional cost for consumer products is low. For sneakers that cost 100 euros and were transported from Asia to Europe with renewable fuels, the added price would be only about 50 cents. Meanwhile, the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will increase ticket prices from 1 to 50 dollars, depending on the flight distance. Time (innovations are constant) is on the side of these molecules, as is geography.
According to the report Carbonomics: The Clean Hydrogen Revolution by the investment firm Goldman Sachs, projections indicate that by 2030 Spain and Portugal could potentially produce green hydrogen at approximately half the cost compared to Central Europe and Nordic countries. Thus, it will become a potential large-scale supplier of green molecules in the region. This time it's basic math. The report reads: "The synergy between the abundant wind resources of northern Europe and the solar irradiation of the south creates optimal conditions for developing efficient wind farms and solar facilities, which fosters this green world." In Iberia (Spain and Portugal), this leadership is partly due to the fact that the facilities are already budgeted for. Moeve has approved the first phase of the Andalusian Green Hydrogen Valley, Onuba, which with 300 MW will be the largest green hydrogen project in southern Europe dedicated to the energy sector. "We really need to move towards green molecules and local production, especially in those areas where it makes sense," concludes Dirk Niemeir, global director of Strategy and Energy Transition, head of Clean Hydrogen, CCUS, and Sustainable Fuels at PWC.
In terms of aviation, the Union has anticipated the creation of 53 SAF plants that will be operational by the end of the decade. The equation posed by the Moeve and PWC report is quite logical and easy to "solve." Biomass-based fuels are expected to drive decarbonization efforts, while hydrogen-derived alternatives will gain prominence in the medium and long term as their competitiveness improves. The fossil world is being left behind. Estimates suggest that hydrogen-based fuels will reach cost parity with fossil fuels in the 2040s. And it's time to move forward. "Europe must move toward the future in this matter, even ahead of some specific projects. If there is an initiative capable of producing green molecules, but the necessary infrastructure to transport or market them is lacking, development faces a problem," warns Dirk Niemeir.
Price, workers, investment. This is the triangle that defines tomorrow. The data compiled by Moeve and Manpower forecast that the development of green molecules could generate up to 1.7 million jobs in the European Union and the United Kingdom. Spain, with those 181,000 jobs we mentioned above, leads new job creation. And the Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will add around 15.6 billion euros more to the country's growth by 2040. These are huge numbers. Two institutions, renowned financial agency Bloomberg and the consulting firm McKinsey have stated that Europe's transition to a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 will require more than 29 trillion euros in accumulated investments. A high figure, yet the numbers still add up. Because if that effort were not made, to recover the climate an additional five trillion would have to be added to that high number. Achieving climate goals is not "just" about protecting the planet but also about driving new opportunities for economic growth. "In this area, the main current driver of development is more regulation than the market: standards and sector mandates (aviation, maritime, industry) that are beginning to create demand, with the goal of accelerating their economic maturation in the medium term," says Ricardo Pedraz, consultant at Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI). Thinking on a different scale. "These investments span decades. Therefore, we should not worry excessively about short-term noise or fluctuations in political direction or cyclical signals," warns Moeve's top official. Because knowledge is an essential requirement for the survival of a small species that has been inhabiting a tiny grain of rock and metal for 400,000 generations (barely a breath, in geological terms), which shines faintly thanks to the light reflected by every sunrise, the sun.
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