For decades, aviation fuel has been considered an essential variable in the aviation business. Since the beginning of the 21st century, it has come to represent between 25% and 35% of the operating costs of a prototypical airline and has been managed as a financial risk through hedges and economies of scale. But in the present, its logic has changed. Fuel is no longer just input, but a strategic factor capable of redistributing economic capacity, industrial capacity, and regulatory capacity in the international aviation market.
In 2024, the conventional global aviation fuel business was operating within a broad range —between $238 billion and just over $400 billion— according to Global Market Insights, with forecasts indicating that the sector will grow at sustained rates over the next decade due to the recovery of air traffic, Asian expansion, and vertical restructuring processes in corporate structures. Ultimately, as The Economist points out in an analysis of aviation and energy transition, "fuel has shifted from being a necessary, albeit rigid, commodity to a top-tier strategic asset."
The turning point of this change is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), produced from organic waste, and with a substantially lower carbon footprint. Although it remains marginal in absolute terms —in 2024, it was around $1.7 billion— it is growing at rates above 40% per year. Therefore, its relevance does not lie in its current trade, but rather in a regulated horizon for a sector that currently relies on this biofuel as its only ally in significantly reducing emissions. SAF has thus become the main lever for achieving these objectives without redesigning fleets or transforming infrastructure.
From a climate standpoint, its appeal is evident. It can reduce emissions by up to 90% throughout its life cycle, compared to conventional kerosene. The International Energy Agency (IEA) emphasizes that, without SAF, "commercial aviation does not have a credible pathway to align with climate objectives in 2050." For a sector responsible for between 2% and 3% of global CO₂, this correction ceases to be a nuanced point, becoming a condition of regulatory and reputational survival.
To bridge the cost gap between traditional jet fuel and SAF, Europe has taken on a clear role as a market-maker. The EU and the UK have imposed mandatory blending mandates for sustainable fuels of at least 2% starting in 2025, with increasing steps until 2050. As a result, the consumption of SAF within the domestic market doubled last year, reaching nearly 2 million tons. The Financial Times points out, "Europe has shown that it can create a market where there wasn't one, although provoking demand does not necessarily mean monopolizing production."
European rules propel aviation in Fit for 55
The ReFuelEU Aviation regulations promote a Copernican shift by turning SAF into a regulated and mandatory market. As it is a regulation, it imposes uniform and binding quotas in all airports of the European area to generate immediate structural demand, thus occupying a central place in the Fit for 55 package.
By 2030, 6% SAF will be mandatory, including 1.2% synthetic fuels (RFNBO), which would require multiplying current production several times.
The regulation distinguishes between biofuels, synthetic fuels, and recycled carbon, limits food-based fuels to 3% and sets out the roadmap for innovation to follow. The obligations fall on fuel suppliers, facilitating long-haul contracts and industrial investment. A key vector is the obligation to refuel at least 90% of annual fuel at EU airports, neutralizing fuel tankering. Without this clause, the regulation, which also includes sanctions, would lose environmental and competitive effectiveness.
This peculiarity reveals that, in the short term, the main brake is economic, given that the mandatory 2% quota in Spain in 2025 implies an estimated extra cost of more than 230 million euros for airlines. In this context, Spain is starting with clear competitive advantages —biomass access, leadership in renewable energy, and logistical and industrial strength— with favorable business prospects. Several studies cited by EASA estimate that SAF could contribute more than 13 billion euros to GDP and 250,000 jobs by 2050.
Spain and the SAF race: regulation, investment and industrial leadership
The new European regulation accelerates the deployment of sustainable aviation fuels, and presents Spain with a strategic decision: that of leading its production or relying on third parties to meet climate objectives.
Sustainable aviation has thus ceased to be a technological horizon and has become a regulatory and economic obligation. With the entry into force of ReFuelEU Aviation and the imminent transposition of the RED III Renewable Energy Directive, the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and synthetic fuels or e-SAF is consolidated as a central part of the decarbonization of European air transport. For Spain, this new framework opens a large-scale industrial opportunity, but it also poses risks if action is not taken with speed and consistency.
ReFuelEU Aviation sets a clear path: from 2025, kerosene must incorporate 2% SAF, with progressive increases until reaching 70% in 2050, including a specific sub-target for synthetic fuels. This mandate will be reinforced by RED III, which raises climate ambition in transport and establishes a combined mandate of 5.5% for advanced biofuels and renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) by 2030, with a minimum of 1% for the latter. In this context, SAF and e-SAF become particularly effective tools for directly and verifiably reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
In this context, the Spanish potential is significant. According to one of the Energy Insight reports by Moeve, Spain could reach a technical production capacity of up to 22 million tons of bio-SAF and 2.2 million tons of e-SAF by 2030, relying on abundant renewable resources, availability of raw materials, and an expanding industrial base. This capacity would not only enable the country to meet domestic demand arising from its European obligations but also position it as a net supplier in the European market.
This is where the philosopher's stone of this challenge emerges: certainty. The recent approval of the Air Navigation Safety Act and the announcement of a future National Air Transport Decarbonization Plan are steps in the right direction, but the sector is still waiting for clear definitions on governance, financing, and schedules. The transposition of RED III will be key to resolving critical technical issues —such as the certification of captured CO₂ or the recognition of renewable electricity in the production of e-SAF— that condition the viability of projects.
Ultimately, in an accelerated energy transition scenario, SAF is not just a climate solution for aviation— it is a strategic commitment to energy autonomy, industrial competitiveness, and European leadership.