According to the report, renewables are expected to generate 43% of global electricity by 2030. Solar PV will become the leading renewable energy source, followed by wind, with the two accounting for nearly two-thirds of total renewable generation.
Although the IEA’s forecasts suggest that renewables will overtake coal as the main source of electricity by the end of this year or mid-2026, recent data from a report by the think tank Ember, published in the Financial Times, indicates that this milestone was already reached in the first half of 2025.
Despite challenges such as integrating electricity grids and limited funding in emerging and developing countries, the report emphasizes that investment in renewables remains strong. Developers are maintaining or even raising their 2030 targets, though progress will require better implementation, more ambitious policies, and greater international cooperation.
Inspiring global growth
The IEA’s latest report projects that global renewable power capacity will grow by 4,600 GW between 2025 and 2030—an increase equivalent to doubling the capacity added over the past five years. By 2030, total renewable capacity is expected to reach 9,529 GW, roughly equal to the current combined capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan. While this figure falls short of the ambitious 11,000 GW target set at COP28, the report stresses that it could still be reached if countries implement more aggressive and effective policies.
According to an earlier report, evidence of this progress had already emerged in 2023 when 510 GW of renewable capacity was added, marking a substantial 50% increase from the previous year.
Solar energy leads the transformation
The 2025 IEA report also notes that nearly 80% of global renewable growth will come from solar energy, driven by low costs, faster permitting, and broad social acceptance. Wind, hydroelectric, bioenergy, and geothermal will account for the rest of the growth. China is spearheading this expansion, but India’s contributions are also significant. The country has increased its renewable energy growth forecast by 10% compared to last year, and it’s expected to become the world’s second-largest growth market for renewables by 2030.
Wind power continues to show strong growth: cumulative onshore capacity is projected to rise 45% by 2030, reaching 732 GW, while offshore wind capacity is expected to hit 140 GW—more than double the growth seen in the previous five years. However, this figure has been revised downward due to financial and regulatory challenges.
Global progress toward the energy transition
The Middle East and North Africa are also showing renewed momentum in renewables, with forecasts up 23%, driven by faster-than-expected development and initiatives such as the installation of wind turbines and solar panels in Saudi Arabia.
In the US, renewables have already surpassed coal in electricity generation. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its growth forecast for the country in half—from 500 GW to 250 GW by 2030— due to legislative changes that hastened phase-out of federal tax credits for sustainable projects. Nevertheless, the US remains a key player in the energy transition, especially in terms of technology development and the corporate power purchase agreement market.
Some of the most significant developments worldwide include:
- China continues to drive global growth, with an additional 2,660 GW forecast by 2030.
- India is solidifying its position as the second most dynamic market, expanding by 345 GW thanks to record auctions and strong support for solar energy.
- The European Union plans to add 630 GW between 2025 and 2030, moving closer to its REPowerEU target, though reforms to permitting and grid infrastructure still need to accelerate.
- Latin America is set to see solar PV match hydropower as the region's main renewable source, led by Brazil, Mexico, and Chile.
- Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double its capacity, with South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya leading the way.